Moscow today
Dossier asked a client living in Moscow what it is like from an insiders perspective. He moved there after Covid travel was lifted from South Africa with his Russian wife.
He is speaking anonymously:
Right now, the mood has changed. With the much-disputed annexation of the land more or less complete, people feel more positive. In general, NATO has (for now) been put in its place.
Public sentiment about the war was initially shock and came with negativity. Then it swayed because people started internalising the necessity of stopping NATO advances through Ukraine's ambitions and became more (but not fervently) supportive. I don't pick up hatred for Ukrainians, people are seeing the war as a necessity to protect the National (Russian) interest.
I've been surprised at how compliant and tolerant the people of Russia have been with regard to sanctions. Shops are untouched and the West's decisions have been respected.
Public loyalty towards Putin? In a word, yes. As long as he appears to be in control of the situation and "winning" in the defense of the country. Sentiment might change if it became obvious that his decisions and actions were not in the country's best interests.
The media appears to be reporting objectively, the losses are probably at least 10 times lower than those reported by Western media. Having said that I believe Western media reports of Russian losses are also exaggerated. So local Russian media appear to report the truth and are always mindful of pushing across the point of the war as substantiation. The principle is something like "offense is the best form of defense" and that Russia acted pre-emptively in its "special military operation" (it's not referred to as war or that would bring about consequences).
The new mobilisation came as a surprise though not such shock as the initial invasion. It's understood that this is people's duty, but most people don't seem to have the patriotic sense of duty like was in the previous world wars. There is confusion about the exact criteria applied so people are quite anxious, not knowing whether they are due for a call-up or not. Systems are being put in place for appeals and rectification of errors in the conscription. The days following the announcement saw waves of people exiting the country. There were errors of selection but this was quickly addressed within the government to the extent that their local home affairs offices (which to a South African look like and operate more like banks than home affairs offices) were able to assist with resolution and clarification on who should serve and helping to manage people who felt they'd been incorrectly selected.
Russians are not really in approval of the war, certainly not with Ukrainians who they view as "brothers". But they're not making this personal, they have difficulty accepting the possibility that they would have to kill their brothers. I think the Ukrainians have it easier in this respect because it is clear who the aggressor is and they are defending their territory. They do not want war, but they are being told to accept that this was more about a defense strategy. They are reminded about the warnings given to NATO and how Russia was ignored in the years running up to this event. A lot is made about the national pride of the country and how it is showing the world that Russia is not to be ignored.
The reasons were unwavering, "denazification" of elements within Ukraine that posed a threat to Russia. Demilitarisation to prevent future - almost certain - attacks. Stopping aggressive NATO expansion. The liberation of areas that contained a large proportion of Russians who needed protection. The messages from the government to the people have been consistent and constant in this regard.
Life in Moscow quickly became expensive. But now, no more so than in the rest of the world. Everything is working, shops are fully stocked. The products that were no longer available were substituted and with the government's official stance on parallel imports means everything can still be accessed though it might not be through the official importers/brands but rather brought in through Kazakhstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan, and other surrounding regions. I think they work hard at keeping a sense of calm.
Many Russians left in the aftermath of the invasion and again in the last two weeks with the confirmation of mobilisation. Again, in contrast to the call-ups in the world wars, there was not a strong sense of patriotic obligation in joining this military exercise. Contrary to the portrayal in the media it's not "everyone" who is leaving. Those with stable jobs working for companies unaffected by foreign sanctions or working for the government take the bus each day and go to work. It's quite surreal. There are 140 million people in the country, and Moscow has over 10 million people...so if even a small percentage leaves, it's a big deal and this is reflected in the neighbouring countries being overrun, in queues at border posts, and stratospheric price increases in travel.
The media is partial to Putin. I think that when viewing Russia through a Western lens we expect to see freedom of expression and dissent. We are surprised that we don't see it and quickly blame "the people" for the state of their nation. It's important to consider the history over hundreds of years. Russia plays strong defense. It uses its people to defend the country. People are therefore way more tolerant and able to accept their fate than their counterparts around the world. This strengthens the position of the government. The little "independent media" that there is, is quite careful with how it portrays the news. People always behave differently when there is a downside to their personal existence.
The views are mostly from observation. and don't necessarily represent my "beliefs", they are therefore subjective. Consider also that there is a lingual and cultural barrier to being a foreigner so it would be quite presumptuous and naive to think we were seeing the full picture.
